Conservatives in Chaos

There's been an interesting exchange overnight on Twitter between Vaughan Roderick (@vaughanroderick) and others about the Conservatives rapidly unravelling budget policy. Apparently within 24 hours we've been treated to three different versions of how the health budget will be protected. Now you might think that the difference between the GDP deflator and RPI is so minimal that it wouldn't make much of an impact - but actually the difference by the end of the next Assembly term would be £200 million every year - an enormous chunk of the Welsh budget.

There is a very serious underlying point here about the Conservatives in Wales. They have worked hard to present themselves as the acceptable face of Conservatism - and it seemed they were making some progress. The UK Government's cuts programme has taken us right back to the 1980s, and therefore they have been desperate to regain the initiative in the Welsh context and present themselves in a positive light. But rather than look in detail at the challenges facing the Welsh budget, I suspect the headline chasing instincts of Andrew RT Davies, overruled the more rational and careful members of the Conservative team in Wales.

The Conservatives are now left with a very real dilemma, the 'policy' was clearly ill-thought through and if anyone is any doubt, just listen to Andrew Davies trying to defend it yesterday on Good Morning Wales. The detail of the policy needs to be worked through very rapidly and effectively - and be clear that this will be painful - every school in Pembrokeshire, the Vale, Denbighshire etc that will be closed by the Tory spending plans will I'm sure be identified! But the Tories have to do their homework, and explain their cuts; because it is one scale of problem to adopt bad policy - to adopt an incredible policy which every journalist knows isn't worth the paper is written on is fatal.